Posts Tagged ‘economic data’

The new reality of business means that companies need to be ever-more aware of macro economic events and assess the potential impact these events have on their own day-to-day operations and long-term plans. Alerus’ goal is to help ensure that customers have access to good information. This monthly report provides more than just data on economic trends; it provides expert insight to help you make sense of the information.

Download the PDF: Alerus Monthly Insights: March

Overall assessment:  The economy showed some signs of improvement, as seen in these areas:
•   Growth remains dismally low, but was revised upward into positive territory.
•   Initial unemployment claims were lower than expected.
•   The Federal Reserve confirmed its commitment to low interest rates.
•   The housing markets also continued to show signs of strength.
•   There was also an enormous drop in the trade deficit.

Despite all the positive signs, the political parties manage to act in a manner that raises the level of uncertainty and, frankly, scares many people and institutional investors. The sequester, and the lack of long term spending resolutions, is the epitome of this behavior.

ANALYSIS The reductions in spending brought on by the sequester have been, and will continue to be, the subject of a significant number of news stories. There are two features to see in this graph of total government spending. First, the dramatic increase in spending is clear. Second, what is also clear is that, to some extent, spending plateaued and has not seen significant increases in the last two years. At some level then, the arguments that both parties make can be supported by the data. Because each party can claim the data supports their viewpoint, it is unlikely we will see prompt resolution.

Do you have questions about how Alerus Financial can help you reach your goals? We welcome the opportunity to discuss the many ways we can support you!

Data and the related opinions have been compiled by Alerus Financial’s strategic information partner, Dr. David T. Flynn. Dr. David T. Flynn is an Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Bureau of Business & Economic Research at the College of Business & Public Administration, University of North Dakota. Dr. Flynn has developed forecast models for personal income and employment in North Dakota, and analyzed small business location patterns for the top 200 cities in North Dakota. His commentary on the North Dakota economy has appeared in print and online publications such as BusinessWeek, NewsWeek, American Banker, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and in newspaper and magazines from the United States, Brazil and Finland. Dr. Flynn is a member of the International Institute of Forecasters, the National Association for Business Economics, and many other professional organizations.

The new reality of business means that companies need to be ever-more aware of macro economic events and assess the potential impact these events have on their own day-to-day operations and long-term plans. Alerus’ goal is to help ensure that customers have access to good information. This monthly report provides more than just data on economic trends; it provides expert insight to help you make sense of the information.

Download the PDF: Alerus Monthly Insights: February

Overall assessment: The preliminary reading of fourth quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at a surprising –0.1%, leaving many questions about the course of the economy. There are serious doubts about the ability of the President and Congress to right the fiscal situation of the United States. At the same time, central banks around the globe are lowering interest rates in order to spur their own economic growth.

Other economic indicators are far more positive. Housing prices continue to grow at a rapid pace and the trade deficit declined in the latest readings. Inflation remains low, and equity markets had a good first month of 2013. The overall picture therefore remains mixed, with some indications of strength and some that raise doubts.

ANALYSIS The Japanese central bank recently initiated a policy designed to create inflation in their economy as a way to stimulate economic growth. This may assist exporting industries within Japan, at the expense of other countries such as the U.S. Will other countries follow suit? An uncoordinated policy of “beggar-thy-neighbor” can have serious issues for trade balances around the globe and thus bears further watching.

Do you have questions about how Alerus Financial can help you reach your goals? We welcome the opportunity to discuss the many ways we can support you!

Data and the related opinions have been compiled by Alerus Financial’s strategic information partner, Dr. David T. Flynn. Dr. David T. Flynn is an Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Bureau of Business & Economic Research at the College of Business & Public Administration, University of North Dakota. Dr. Flynn has developed forecast models for personal income and employment in North Dakota, and analyzed small business location patterns for the top 200 cities in North Dakota. His commentary on the North Dakota economy has appeared in print and online publications such as BusinessWeek, NewsWeek, American Banker, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and in newspaper and magazines from the United States, Brazil and Finland. Dr. Flynn is a member of the International Institute of Forecasters, the National Association for Business Economics, and many other professional organizations.

The new reality of business means that companies need to be ever-more aware of macro economic events and assess the potential impact these events have on their own day-to-day operations and long-term plans. Alerus’ goal is to help ensure that customers have access to good information. This monthly report provides more than just data on economic trends; it provides expert insight to help you make sense of the information.

Download the PDF: Alerus Monthly Insights: January

Overall assessment: Unfortunately, 2012 ended on a mixed note. The political wrangling over the “fiscal cliff” damaged business, consumer confidence in the abilities of political leaders, and the strength of the economy. The end result was a solution that solved almost nothing and only pushed off difficult decisions — yet again. On the plus side, financial market performance was good for the year overall, and there was continued strengthening of housing markets. Consumers seem wary of the future, particularly when it comes to matters such as disposable income and spending. It seems that 2013 starts with more serious problems, potentially, than we dealt with in 2012.

ANALYSIS I am not usually a strong advocate of using consumer sentiment variables because they do not track neatly into real economic changes such as spending. However, the damage done by political posturing can clearly be seen in December. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped over 10% from the prior month and sharply reversed a strengthening trend. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, and such a drastic drop likely signals trouble for businesses and the economy.

Do you have questions about how Alerus Financial can help you reach your goals? We welcome the opportunity to discuss the many ways we can support you!

Data and the related opinions have been compiled by Alerus Financial’s strategic information partner, Dr. David T. Flynn.Dr. David T. Flynn is an Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Bureau of Business & Economic Research at the College of Business & Public Administration, University of North Dakota. Dr. Flynn has developed forecast models for personal income and employment in North Dakota, and analyzed small business location patterns for the top 200 cities in North Dakota. His commentary on the North Dakota economy has appeared in print and online publications such as BusinessWeek, NewsWeek, American Banker, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and in newspaper and magazines from the United States, Brazil and Finland. Dr. Flynn is a member of the International Institute of Forecasters, the National Association for Business Economics, and many other professional organizations.